we are doomed......................

A very serious issue not fully understood, Industry leaders have to become more outspoken outside of industry cirrcle like Pickens Plan. We do not have much time in the US for alt. sources.

I am tired of people like Matt Simmons, Jim Puplava keep talking about tight oil supply while oil is trading around $40.  They often spoke about the plunging of oil from $147 to below low $30 but they have never been able to provide a good explanation for the plunge.  They dance around a lot but never state the reasons.  Peak Oil is true.  But the investment timing offer by these two gentlemen has devastated the wealth of their loyal followers.  If the world at this point is truly tight on supply, then we would not be seeing $30-40 dollar oil.  Plain and simple.  Their total reliance on reports written by people in the IEA and Robert Hirsh as gospel has doomed their investment strategy.  It turns out that those who did not listen to these two gentlemen, and invest in energy at this point would turn out to be the winner of Peak Oil.  Matt and Jim, you have done a huge dis-service to your followers.

SK,

I understand your frustration with the markets; however, if our entire financial system can into melt down over “toxic mortgages” why is it so hard to believe that something more than supply and demand are at play here.  95% of the morgages are just fine, but we are about to spend another 350 billion to fix our financial system.  At the root of the problem is the mark to market system we deploy.

Could it be that root of our problem here is that we don’t know how to price energy successfully?  Matt’s point is that this is not sustainable and the rapid decline of price cannot be explained away by saying that supply has out stripped demand.

I have followed Matt for years and know his peak oil theory well.  He seems to feel that we are either at peak or past it using the only public data available.  He has also called for field by field numbers which would be the only way to accurately predict and follow decline rates.  This is something that countries and companies have both resisted leaving all of us wondering what is really going on.

As to Jim, this is a speech from Matt I don’t see how you can blame him for it.  One thing no one wants to argue about is that the population continues to grow.  That being said the demand for energy will continue to grow.  Fortunes have never been made at the top of the market, so this is a buying opportunity.  Buy resources now and sell them at top dollar.

Jim, thanks for providing this I would have like to have seen Matt give the speech I have watched him on television a few times and find his arguments compelling.  At least he doesn’t try to sugar coat our situation.

The comments do not seem to line up with the speech I just listened to.  His arguements seem well thought out and his graphs well foot noted.

If you do not appreciate his conclusions I think we should be looking at other ways to interpet the data, or we should be looking at different data.

Does anyone have either?

Once upon a time we had oil seeping up between our toes, then we needed to dig little holes, then we needed to insert straws, then we needed compression, then we went into deeper and deeper water, then the world began to run out.  Now we squeeze the very rocks to get the drops.

Anyone else see a patern, the days of the hydro carbon economy are numbered.  We are done with easy oil and beginning the tuff stuff.  And then the price crashed.  

So now what?

Again people are brainwashed by the seemingly convincing arguments put forth by Matt and Jim.  I am not arguing the validity of Peak Oil.  Peak Oil is a fact.  What I am criticizing about Matt and Jim is that they continue to suggest that Peak Oil is here or near when the price of oil fell through the floor.  If the world demand of oil has not diminished even in this debt de-leveraging crisis, and supply is dropping say 6% as per the EIA, why the continue low price of oil?  S/D IS FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMICS.  So either the demand equation is wrong, which I doubt as it is easy to compute how much is sold.  Or the world's supply of oil is more than adequate at this juncture (ie, Peak Oil is NOT here yet).  For Matt and Jim to continue to keep saying Peak Oil in past tense simply violates the basic economic theory of supply and demand.

I think there are two things that are missed in the comments here.  One, high oil prices are an indication that we have reached a peak of sorts.  SP you cannot deny that production is dropping.  That is the definition of peak oil.  So as long as production continues to decline from a peak of 85 million barrels then we are by definition past the peak and the price will reflect this when demand increases again.

I would say that there is no evidence that we can increase production indefinately, therefore we know that oil production will become harder and harder as it struggles to keep up with demand.

Right now we are seeing demand destruction and supply destruction.  Very short sighted on production, unfortunate on demand.  The reality of our postition is that the industry will retract, they will learn to operate at 40 dollars and the economies will recover.

Let's not confuse proven reserves with peak oil.  Peak oil only refers to production.  We can know that unlimited supplies of oil lie at the bottom of the ocean, but wthout the will or the technology we will never produce that oil.

But at 40 dollars new technology is not an option, new sources of energy are not an option, and policy to the contrary will be resisted around the world.

I would like to see Matt Simmons, Jim Puplava and Richard Loomis do a live webinar together where they can into all of these details and then take questions for a couple of hours from the rest of us.

Then we could ask the tuff questions, see thier responses and judge accordingly.

Any Takers?

Peak Oil is not just about the indefinite decline in oil production.  It is a concerning issue to human because it is about supply not being able to meet human demand.  If human do not use oil at all, then declining supply of oil is not at all a concerning issue.

I am just amazed by the ignorance of people.  People will use all kinds of reasoning to back up people they look up to (ie, Matt and Jim).  Again, it is very simple.  If Peak Oil was here, then we would not be seeing oil heading to low $30s as continuing world demand will put a floor on rapidly shrinking supply.  $30 -40 dollar oil still does not convince people that Matt and Jim are wrong for having stated Peak Oil in past tense.  Peak Oil is not yet here as reflected by the ultimate arbiter - the market price.

Freezing in the Dark is an option and with 150+ million more people every year I think the price of oil won't be low for long.  The low price, as I see it, is the buying opportunity of a life time for an investor and will be catastrophic for the world.

Having said that, peak or no peak where else would you put your money?  Gold Commodities and Oil.  The production of all of these things may have peaked by now and the production of dollars is the only thing that hasn't peaked.

Fair winds to all you buccaneers !!

A lot of flattering laughter either due to people's admiration of Matt or people's nervousness about plunging oil price, or Matt's jokes are just so funny.  Matt talks a lot about oil crisis and problems, even suggesting Peak Oil has already passed.  Hmmm...  This is great news.  As oil continues to deplete, the price of oil continues to fall.  This is great news for consumers.  With this kind of faulty logic, no wonder people are confused about the true picture of the oil supply and demand.  On one hand, demand is not falling and supply is in serious trouble.  On the other hand, the fact remains oil fall thru the floor.  Matt needs to have his head or data re-examined for this very obvious contradiction.

Please put in an AUDIO format so we can Podcast it!!!!!!

98% of this is listening anyhow.  

SP, you are the typical impatient, narrow minded investor that deserves to lose his money (A fool and his money...)  Go ahead, sell it.  I will buy what you have.  Did you think you were buying at the bottom when oil made such a drastic run up in such a short time.

600,000 lay offs in January...That's not going to affect demand, SP?????  GOD YOU ARE A FOOL.

Oil prices are not going to rise and fall logically during this economic crisis.  GET THAT????  De-leveraging, psychological influence is playing a HUGE role in the decline.  

ACCELERATING JOBLESS NUMBERS...that's not going to have a psychological/logical affect on traders?  

HUMAN PSYCHOLOGY is what makes the markets the GREATEST GAME MAN EVER INVENTED.  

Oil is at $34/barrel and yet gas stays at $2 and is starting to climb.  How tight is supply?  Who controls the price?

You shouldn't be in this game if you start harping on Simmons and Puplava for the decline in oil prices.  You obviously don't have a clear understanding of the BIG PICTURE.  Let the adults handle this, ok?

Matt and Jim don't deserve the self respect that they gave themselves.  They failed totally to predict the recent collapse of the oil price.  They failed completely to preserve the wealth of their investors and followers.  It turns out that investors who listened to them have become the first victim of Peak Oil.

I agree.  Jim's investment strategies have not only failed to preserve the wealth of his investors.  It has utterly destroyed their wealth.  I am not picking on one has to be able to predict the market with exactitude.  If one cannot predict this credit contraction resulting in the plunging of the market - a very big picture, you fail utterly as a money manager.  If one still narrowly defines inflation as an increase in money supply and not a result of increase in both money supply and CREDIT (which is a more practical definition for inflation), one fails completely as an economist.

Wait a minute, I don't think you can make such a blanket statement as "Jim's investment strategies have not only failed to preserve the wealth of this investors, it has utterly destroyed thier wealth".  That is unjustified.  Right now every financial planner in the world is having to remind investors that markets go up and they go down.  In down markets you buy stocks at bargan prices and they are then followed by huge upswings.

Look at the history of oil, everytime the price drops we use so much of it the price snaps to even higher levels.  Matt is trying to point out that the fundamentals are unsustainable.  If Oil is a finite resource then we need to buy it when it is cheap and sell when high.  

Lets let the market work, follow the trends if Obama is able to stimulate the economy we see the greatest demand for energy this country has ever seen.  Those that are producers will be in high demand.  

Right now we need to look at companies that are the cutting edge, have solid teams, have proven reserves, and depressed stock prices and buy them.

Thanks for providing Matt Simmons a forum, and World Energy sure puts together a great product.

Jim Puplava's inflation first theory has failed completely.  Now he sold his stocks and bought T-bills and raised cash.  Hmm...sounds like a strategy advocated by the deflationists.  I agree with others.  His investment strategy failed.  His macro economic pictures are wrong.  He needs to be discredited.

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SP doesn't follow the news or doesn't know where the majority of the oil is used: in the transportation sector. SInce the economic downturn exports are falling sharply (around 20%). A lot of people think much of the oil is used for electricity generation, however that is not so. So the demand destruction is one reason for the drop in oil prices. Speculation was one reason why prices went so high, but to claim that peakoil is in the future is impossible and dangerous to say. If one lookes at net energy recovery the peak might well be behind us.    

SP, Relax, take some aspirin and lay down for a while. Bet if you were the engineer on a coal train you would expect zero to sixty in five seconds. Think longer term.

I bought in a little early in nov 08 on oil service myself, and they are down. I KNOW they are coming back strong by the summer of '10 and I'll be rich. It's a great feeling that puts a spring in my step!